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padding: 0px; width: 100%; height: 800px"></div> <script type="text/javascript"> $('#SwfDocumentViewer').FlexPaperViewer({ config: { SWFFile: '', Scale: 0.6, ZoomTransition: 'easeOut', ZoomTime: 0.5, ZoomInterval: 0.1, FitPageOnLoad: false, FitWidthOnLoad: true, FullScreenAsMaxWindow: false, ProgressiveLoading: false, MinZoomSize: 0.2, MaxZoomSize: 5, SearchMatchAll: true, InitViewMode: '', RenderingOrder: 'flash,html', StartAtPage: '', ViewModeToolsVisible: true, ZoomToolsVisible: true, NavToolsVisible: true, CursorToolsVisible: true, SearchToolsVisible: true, WMode: 'transparent', localeChain: 'en_US' } }); </script> </div> <script type="text/javascript"> var swfurl = document.getElementById("SwfFileUrl").innerHTML.toString().trim(); if (swfurl === "") { document.getElementById("ShowSwfDiv").innerHTML = ""; } </script> <div> <p style="text-indent: 25px;"> </p> <p></p> <div style="text-align: center;"></div> <p style="text-indent: 25px;">四大矿山的二季报?月䆾陆箋出炉。同比来看,仅FMG出现明显增Q且创下了季度船q量的新U录QBHP与去q同期水q相当,RIO在飓风的延箋影响下低于去q同期水q뀂但即便如此Q澳z三大矿q2019财年目标最l得以完成;VALE在Brumadinho溃坝事g及异帔R雨媄响下Q同比环比降q均属最大?/p> <p style="text-indent: 25px;">随着前期各种事g的消化,7月䆾铁矿矛_港量出现了较为明昄回升Q澳z发q量保持略高于去q同期水qI巴西发货量整体仍l持在同期低位水q?月䆾随着VALE的进一步恢复,铁矿到港量以及澳z巴西发货量有望出现季节性增量,此外Q?月国内大矿山开工率已有所回升Q在国矿利润水q_高的背景下,国矿供应量也有望增加?/p> <p style="text-indent: 25px;">铁矿石需求方面,7月䆾环保限政策有所放松Q?月䆾螺纹钢实际周产量q未出现明显减少Q整体维持高位区间振荡,由此带动铁矿石需求相对保持稳定。环保限产政{对钢材h影响的边际效应虽然在递减Q但寚w矿石的需求媄响预期仍在,其是在供给端陆l恢复之后,限政策执行的严g否对铁矿石需求的增量影响则更易凸显?/p> <p style="text-indent: 25px;">库存斚wQ随着前期供应端各事g影响的逐步消散Q铁矿石港口库存降幅收窄Q维持在偏低水^Q钢厂库存基本保持稳定,׃目前铁矿石h格偏高,多数钢厂Z规避风险~Z大批量采购计划的意愿及动力,多以按需采购补库的策略ؓ主,库存整体波动较小?/p> <p style="text-indent: 25px;">l合来看Q铁矿石供应斚wQ随着x发货量的季节性回升以及巴西矿q陆箋复Q?月䆾外矿供应量以及到港量有望增加Q而内矉K着国矿利润水q的提升也有供应增加的可能性,铁矿石供应M有增加空间。需求方面,?0周年大庆之前Q环保限产将成ؓ常态,其对于铁矿石需求媄响的灉|性弹性较大,虽然目前来看限政策实际执行力度可能有所放松或不及预期,铁矿石需求增量空间大概率变动不会太大?月䆾铁矿矛_本面大概率呈C需双强局面,供需~口逐步~解保持紧^衡状态,港口库存l持q稳波动Q铁矿石h方向性不会太明朗Q期价在高脓水的l构支撑下下跌空间有限,M大概率保持高位振荡格局?/p> <p style="text-indent: 25px;"><br> </p> <p style="margin: 0px; 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